The Likelihood Of Chinese Space Station Tiangdong-1 Landing In Malaysia is Low

The Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI) has stated via the National Space Agency (ANGKASA) that the likelihood of of the Chinese Space Station Tiangong-1 landing in Malaysia is very low. According to Dr. Noordin Ahmad, the Managing Director of ANGKASA, calculations show that the area between the latitude lines of 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south measures 347 860 000 square kilometres, and covers several cities and countries other than Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. These include Singapore (1.35 degrees north); Sydney, Australia (33.86 degrees south); Florida, the United States of America (27.66 degrees north); and Beijing, China (39.90 degrees north).

The diagram above shows the orbit of Tiangong-1

The Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur takes up 243.65 square kilometres of space between the two latitude lines. The likelihood of debris landing within Kuala Lumpur, therefore, is only around 0.0000699%, according to Dr Noordin Ahmad. Taking into account Malaysia’s total area of 329 960.22 square kilometres,  the chances of debris landing in Malaysia at all is only 0,09%.

These calculations are based on data obtained from sumber.data.gov.my and the Department of Information, Malaysia.

Notes from China to the United Nations claim that most of the structure and components from Tiangong-1 will burn away due to friction from re-entry into the atmosphere, and the likelihood of the debris causing disruption to activities on Earth, including flights, is highly unlikely. The note, dated 4 May 2017 with reference number AC.105/1150 can be found on the website of the United Nations of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). China also stated in this note observation and forecasting activities will be stepped up, and the estimated time of re-entry will be announced. More information can be obtained from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee , and orbit status as well as any other related information will be shared on the website of China Manned Space Engineering. China will inform UNOOSA anf the Secretary-General of the United Nations of Tiangong-1’s final estimated landing date and location.

 The decay of Tiangong-1 is being carefully observed by spave agencies such as the ESA, NASA, JAXA, and CNSA. ANGKASA, which is closely connected to these agencies, is also constantly observing these developments from time to time. ANGKASA will make daily observations of Tiangong-1’s altitude to estimate its landing time, and will provide the public with more detailed infoomation when needed.

For reference :-

1. Tiangong-1 was a Chinese space station launched on 29 September 2011 from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre. There have since been three space missions to the space station: Shenzhou-8, Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10. Liu Yang, China’s first female astronaut, visited the space station via Shenzhou-9.
2. On 14 September 2016, Wu Ping, the Deputy Director of China Manned Space Engineering (CMSE), announced that the space station would fall into the Earth’s atmosphere at the end of 2017 after a 6-year-long mission. Based on early calculations, most of the space station’s body would be burned away upon re-entry and will not affect activities such as aviation, or cause any destruction on Earth. Tiangong- is currently under observation by China and any updates ion the space station’s movements will be reported on an international level.
3. The last recorded incident of space debris landing on Earth was in Oddanchatram, India in November 2016, which involved components from the LARES satellite launching rocket. The closest incident to Kuala Lumpur was in Bangkok, Thailand, involving debris from the Delta II satellite launcher during the launch of the GPS-IIR-6 satellite
4. The calculation of the potential landing area made using Matlab area = areaquad(43,-180,-43,180, 'earth','km')area = 3.4786e+08
5. http://www.data.gov.my/data/ms_MY/dataset/keluasan-sempadan-greater-kuala-lumpur-klang-valley
6. http://pmr.penerangan.gov.my/index.php/profil-malaysia/4-geografi.html
7. http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/aac_105/aac_1051150_0_html/AC105_1150E.pdf